Sunday, October 14, 2007

Sea Level Rise and Global Warming

The headline from an Associated Press story that ran September 22, 200, proclaims "Rising Seas Likely to Flood U.S. History". But is it true?

Sea level rise is one of the most talked about catastrophic results of global warming predicted by the IPCC, Al Gore and a multitude of other global warming alarmists. Trying to find real information on sea level rises is nearly impossible as the first ten pages of results usually employ words like "projected" and "predicted" in the title of the articles.

The flooding of the world and the loss of islands like the Maldives are just that - predictions and projections. They are based on computer models whose accuracy cannot be tested and will not be known by anyone who is alive today and if they are wrong, certainly cannot be charged to those who made them, as they will also be long gone.

But what I wanted was actual data, real measurements of sea level rise - when it started, how much it has increased, etc. What I found was really rather surprising. It was not surprising that the current rise in sea level began after the last ice age. Global warming theorists tell us that the rate of sea level rise is accelerating, but surprise - in reality, there is no proof of this.

Professor Nils-Axel Morner of Stockholm University, who has spent years doing observational studies, concludes that there is no sea level rise in the Maldives, islands that global warming theorists say will eventually be flooded over. He states that contrary to what is generally believed, sea levels dropped in the 1970s and have remained stable. He further states that the IPCC has relied too heavily on computer models and based on observational data (facts) he believes that a sea level rise of 5cm is likely by the year 2100. In other words, no discernible rise will take place.

Simon Holgate of Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Liverpool, UK studied nine, continuous, century-long sea level records from around the globe. His research revealed that sea level rises were actually higher in the first part of the 20th century, before 1950 than they were in the second half. His research paper was published January 2007 in Geophysical Research Letters. He concludes that the high variability in the rates of sea level change observed over the past 20 years were not particularly unusual.

So when you get down to actual data, there isn't any acceleration in the rate of sea level rise, the seas have been rising for thousands of years at an expected rate. It is only computer models and projections that say otherwise, and without scientific evidence and solid data to back them up, these predictions are no more than computerized fortune-telling.

The AP story highlighted US historical sites that would soon be underwater and disappear forever. The article is based on these computer model predictions and not founded in real observational data. Why run a story like this if the data proves otherwise?

We know why.

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