Monday, October 29, 2007

Hurricane Season Letdown for Al Gore, Again

After incorrectly identifying the destructive power of Hurricane Katrina as a direct result of global warming, what Al Gore really needed was some bang-up hurricane seasons to back his claims and whip up public frenzy. Unfortunately for Al, that hasn't happened. No hurricane-strength storm made landfall in the US in 2006 and it appears that storm activity is once again going to fall far short of predictions for 2007.

Hurricane season is officially over on November 30, a date which soon approaches. September 2007 had the lowest tropical storm activity since 1977 and both September 2006 and October 2006 brought the lowest storm activity in 30 years. During the past 30 years, only 1977, 1981, and 1983 have had less activity.



The forecast for both years was for a fairly active season and as nature refused to adhere to the forecast and failed to whip up storms that would fulfill the projections, there was lots of backtracking and excuses for the dull season. Everything from wind shear to El Nino and the lack of dust in the atmosphere was blamed for the relative quiet. Only Chris Landsea, in an article in National Geographic explained that hurricane seasons naturally fluctuate and that storms as intense as Katrina have happened many times over in history but we didn't have the technology to track or measure them as we do today.

In the commentary, he and colleagues write that firm conclusions on the link between global warming and hurricane intensity must wait until the historical hurricane record has been reanalyzed with modern methods.

But even then, Landsea said, he expects the increase in intensity to be small.

"Theoretical and numerical models do suggest [hurricanes] will become more intense due to global warming, but by a fairly tiny fraction, about 2 percent for every degree Fahrenheit [0.5 degree Celsius]."


Moreover, much of the reason for the vast destruction of Katrina was the demographics, so many people living in a coastal zone prone to hurricanes and the fact that New Orleans lies below sea level.

"Scores of scientists and engineers had warned of the threat to New Orleans long before climate change was seriously considered, and a Katrina-like storm or worse was (and is) inevitable even in a stable climate."


Anyway, the 2007 season is another bust for Al Gore. Of course, the season isn't quite over with yet, and maybe nature will deign to hand Al a storm whose tales of destruction he can feed to a warming-hungry media and public. But as of today, it seems unlikely.

4 comments:

Mover Mike said...

Nobody has explained to me why with all the human caused side effects, the chart peaks in 1992. Surely things are farther along today toward, sharp intake of breath, global warming than in 1992, but darn it, the sky is not falling as it should.

Where's the love?

Anonymous said...

incorrectly identifying the destructive power of Hurricane Katrina as a direct result of global warming

Al Gore nver said that...Check your facts and stop blaming the messenger.

Andrea said...

Mike, the lack of an appropriate disaster to heighten global warming awareness must be a great disappointment to Al Gore and the global warming alarmists.

I had a look round your website and couldn't find anything I disliked or disagreed with. Great site, even the poetry, even your taste in music. Ray Lamontagne is an impressive new talent.

I am adding your blog to my links.

Andrea said...

Anonymous,

Gore used pictures of the Katrina disaster and predicted that global warming would lead to more huge storms like it. He certainly suggested that it was intensified by global warming and that was the impression that a UK judge said must be corrected before showing this film to schoolchildren.

If he meant to use the photos as an example of what might happen rather than what has happened due to global warming, he is still incorrect as experts do not believe that global warming will significantly increase hurricane strength. I refer you to the quote from Chris Landsea, the foremost expert on North Atlantic hurricanes and a contributor to the IPCC report until he realized that they were making predictions about hurricanes that were not supported by the evidence and subsequently withdrew.

Global Warming alarmists generally excuse any of Gore's exaggeration, believing that it's alright to exaggerate to get the global warming message across, but come on, this is America and any time you lie to the people should be the last time anyone listens to you.